US strikes Iran by...?
00
DAYS
00
HRS
00
MINS
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
June 30
$2.1M Vol.
68%
▲4%
June 30
$2.1M Vol.
68%
▲4%
March 31
$4M Vol.
61%
▲3%
June 30
$3.9M Vol.
56%
▲5%
June 30
$2.8M Vol.
54%
▼7.5%
June 30
$4.3M Vol.
54%
▼0.5%
June 30
$3.5M Vol.
51%
▼1%
March 31
$7.3M Vol.
43%
▲3%
June 30
$4.9M Vol.
43%
▼11%
March 31
$6.2M Vol.
39%
▼4.5%
March 31
$5M Vol.
39%
▼16%
March 31
$7.7M Vol.
38%
▼3%
March 31
$8.5M Vol.
30%
▼8%
March 15
$58.1K Vol.
21%
▼5%
ENDED MARKETS
February 3
$1.1M Vol. · Ended
>99%
No Won
Final: >99% Yes
February 4
$1.1M Vol. · Ended
>99%
No Won
Final: >99% Yes
February 5
$2M Vol. · Ended
98.7%
No Won
Final: 98.7% Yes
February 7
$1.1M Vol. · Ended
98.5%
No Won
Final: 98.5% Yes
February 2
$1.2M Vol. · Ended
98.3%
No Won
Final: 98.3% Yes
February 14
$369K Vol. · Ended
97.9%
No Won
Final: 97.9% Yes
February 15
$170.4K Vol. · Ended
96.3%
No Won
Final: 96.3% Yes
February 10
$41.7K Vol. · Ended
96.2%
No Won
Final: 96.2% Yes
February 16
$134.6K Vol. · Ended
95.8%
No Won
Final: 95.8% Yes
February 17
$69.2K Vol. · Ended
95.4%
No Won
Final: 95.4% Yes
February 1
$1.6M Vol. · Ended
94.5%
No Won
Final: 94.5% Yes
February 18
$37.7K Vol. · Ended
94.5%
No Won
Final: 94.5% Yes
February 19
$27.9K Vol. · Ended
94.5%
No Won
Final: 94.5% Yes
February 11
$13.7K Vol. · Ended
94.5%
No Won
Final: 94.5% Yes
February 8
$80.8K Vol. · Ended
94.5%
No Won
Final: 94.5% Yes
February 20
$2.3M Vol. · Ended
93.5%
No Won
Final: 93.5% Yes
February 12
$6.3K Vol. · Ended
93%
No Won
Final: 93% Yes
February 9
$75.3K Vol. · Ended
93%
No Won
Final: 93% Yes
February 13
$6.7M Vol. · Ended
90.5%
No Won
Final: 90.5% Yes
February 13
$4.1M Vol. · Ended
88.5%
No Won
Final: 88.5% Yes
February 28
$13.2M Vol. · Ended
85.5%
No Won
Final: 85.5% Yes
February 20
$3.2K Vol. · Ended
83%
No Won
Final: 83% Yes
February 20
$1.5M Vol. · Ended
82.5%
No Won
Final: 82.5% Yes
February 20
$619K Vol. · Ended
82.5%
No Won
Final: 82.5% Yes
February 28
$6.2M Vol. · Ended
76.5%
No Won
Final: 76.5% Yes
February 28
$8.9M Vol. · Ended
74.5%
No Won
Final: 74.5% Yes
February 28
$11.1M Vol. · Ended
74.5%
No Won
Final: 74.5% Yes
February 6
$929.4K Vol. · Ended
73.5%
No Won
Final: 73.5% Yes
February 6
$927K Vol. · Ended
73.5%
No Won
Final: 73.5% Yes
February 6
$1.5M Vol. · Ended
73%
No Won
Final: 73% Yes
February 13
$612.5K Vol. · Ended
61%
No Won
Final: 61% Yes
February 13
$612.5K Vol. · Ended
61%
No Won
Final: 61% Yes
February 13
$1M Vol. · Ended
55.5%
No Won
Final: 55.5% Yes
February 28
$3.7M Vol. · Ended
48.5%
Yes Won
Final: 48.5% Yes
February 28
$3.7M Vol. · Ended
48.5%
Yes Won
Final: 48.5% Yes
February 28
$4.3M Vol. · Ended
43.5%
Yes Won
Final: 43.5% Yes
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 20, 2026, 10:02 PM Asia/Dhaka
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