Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
00
DAYS
00
HRS
00
MINS
00
SECS
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
OpenAI
$273.9K Vol.
34%
▼1%
xAI
$208K Vol.
26%
▼0.5%
Meta
$12.2K Vol.
17%
▲0.5%
Z.ai
$2.6K Vol.
15%
▲2%
DeepSeek
$12.2K Vol.
13.7%
▲0.7%
Alibaba
$453.874962 Vol.
10.5%
▲1.5%
Baidu
$1.1K Vol.
10.4%
▲1.9%
Nvidia
$4.9K Vol.
8.2%
▼1.4%
Meituan
$1.5K Vol.
6.9%
▼1.1%
Mistral
$6.2K Vol.
6%
▲0.5%
Anthropic
$258K Vol. · Ended
Yes
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Created At: Jan 20, 2026, 10:02 PM Asia/Dhaka
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